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Live Presidential Forecast: Election Real-Time Predictions Nyt Needle
Our election model provides real-time estimates of the presidential race, factoring in polling data, reported votes, and projections for remaining ballots. Here’s a breakdown of the current forecast:
Chance of Winning
- Trump: 90% chance of victory
- Likely Trump: 301 Electoral Votes (range: 251–326)
- Harris: 237 Electoral Votes (range: 212–287)
- Popular Vote: Trump +1.1%, with Harris ranging from +2% to +4%
Tipping Point States (93 Electoral Votes)
These seven states are likely to determine the winner. Harris needs 44 of these votes, while Trump needs 51 to secure the election.
- Nevada (6 EV)
- 61% chance of Trump victory
- Michigan (15 EV)
- 67% chance of Trump victory
- Wisconsin (10 EV)
- 74% chance of Trump victory
- Pennsylvania (19 EV)
- 76% chance of Trump victory
- Arizona (11 EV)
- 80% chance of Trump victory
- Georgia (16 EV)
- >95% chance of Trump victory
- North Carolina (16 EV)
- Trump favored
Electoral College Estimate
- Trump: 301 EV (Likely to win)
- Harris: 237 EV (with a range of 212–287 EV)
Nyt Needle Live Forecast by State
As votes are counted, the model updates the predictions for each state, adjusting estimates based on demographics and historical voting trends.
Key House Races:
- New Jersey: Harris +6.4%
- Maine: Harris +6.0%
- Nebraska 2nd District: Harris +5.3%
- New Mexico: Harris +5.2%
- Virginia: Harris +5.2%
- Minnesota: Harris +3.5%
- New Hampshire: Harris +3.1%
- Pennsylvania: Trump +1.9%
- Wisconsin: Trump +1.9%
- Michigan: Trump +2.2%
- Georgia: Trump +2.5%
- Nevada: Trump +2.5%
- North Carolina: Trump +3.4%
- Arizona: Trump +3.7%
How the Forecast Has Changed Nyt Needle
As new results come in, the model adjusts to reflect shifting projections. When the electoral estimate stabilizes despite incoming data, the forecast becomes more reliable. The shaded range in the electoral vote estimate shows model uncertainty, which narrows as more results are reported.
As votes are counted and recounted, the model updates the predictions for each state, adjusting estimates based on demographics and historical voting trends.